## Your Unit's Value *Estimate*

For a value estimate by return email, provide your **unit number, and name.** It will be helpful to know if you have made significant improvements, or have a Monument or River view. Estimates are provided free, are *time-sensitive,* and will be reviewed periodically, as values continue to change. **Any gain or loss from use of these estimates is your responsibility; the provider assumes no responsibility.**

Value estimates *are not* suggested asking prices, which should be set on a case-by-case basis in consultation with your listing agent in view of the latest market information. 22202 properties are expected to appreciate at a faster rate than Northern Virginia homes, and the Eclipse is well positioned as the newest high-rise, by about 30 years.

These value estimates are more accurate (within 3 or 4%) than your tax assessment (within 32%), a Zestimate (good luck), etcetera. Many factors such as age and location can be ignored because they are based on Eclipse sales, which are monitored so that values can be adjusted for appreciation.

The effectiveness of marketing efforts and negotiations influenced the data used, but these variables are not considered in the calculations. If there have been significant upgrades to your unit, its value will be greater than indicated. If you have deferred maintenance, or possess unique taste in decorating, your value will be less than indicated.

### A word of *caution*

The calculation of **dollars per square foot** is now included by our new MLS system instituted in 2018. It is an easy concept to grasp but is often misused. Our former MLS system made no mention of this figure in order to minimize the inherent dangers. While dollars per square foot provides important insight, misuse of the data is one reason your tax assessed value and Zestimate can be off by 30%, and that’s a lot.

Figures quoted are for an *average* square foot. But a little-known concept (unless you’re an appraiser) is the value of a *marginal* (or additional) square foot. It is easy to understand that an extra 100 square feet added to a 300 square foot home is of great value. On the other hand, 100 square feet added to a 5,000 square foot home will be worth much less. So a square foot in a 3-bedroom unit will be worth less than a square foot in an efficiency unit.

**Scary?** The value of an * average* square foot in the Eclipse is currently over $500. But State-licensed **appraisers,** who adjust for *marginal* square feet, are currently using a value of about $100 to $200! So, let’s not get too whacked about dollars per square foot: There are many important factors other than size that determine property values.

### Calculation Method

To generate **value estimates,** data from recent Eclipse sales were entered into a matrix (a square box of numbers). The matrix was then inverted* to determine correlation coefficients. Algorithms (formulae) were then constructed and dithered in order to account for all the sales with a minimum error. The dithering** overcomes limitations inherent in the matrix inversion operation. Separate algorithms are used, tailored to the number of bedrooms, which improves accuracy. Value results for efficiency units and three-bedroom units might be a bit less precise due to the limited number of sales of those types.

* If you’re not familiar with the matrix inversion process, it is not rocket science. If you studied Algebra 1 in 9th grade, you certainly solved two equations in two variables. It looked like this . . .

2x + 3y = 16

5x + 1y = 14

Can you still do it? If you found that x = 2 and y = 4, you are correct.

The matrix inversion process is the same, except that it is automated in Microsoft Excel to deal with many, many equations with many, many variables. Then, potentially laborious dithering was automated with an Excel "Macro" (mini-program).

** Dithering is the process that optimizers your car's fuel/air mixture many times each second. It begins with the current situation, then tests whether a positive or negative adjustment improves the result.

* * *

Email David if you would like to subscribe to his monthly market report.

* * * * * * *

**YFiRE**

**Y**our **F**riend **i**n **R**eal **E**state, LLC

Arlington, Virginia, USA